Welcome to my 2021 season preview where I will give my quick 100ish word take on your team in the order of where I think they'll finish on the ladder. If your team is lower than you think they should be or I said something mean about your favourite player, please tell me why on my tweet and I'll tell you why you're wrong and I'm right. Enjoy!
16. Dragons
There’s very little I like about this team. Their pack is one of the worst in the comp (which will somehow be Ben Hunt’s fault), their depth isn’t great and their spine is a bizarre recreation of the 2013/14 Broncos with the added bonus of Ryan Papenhuyzen off Wish at fullback. Griffin has arguably always underachieved with rosters that are much better than this, so I have little optimism for him with this Dragons side. On a positive note, I’m a big Zac Lomax guy and think he’s primed to make another leap this season, while I also think Cody Ramsey, the Feagai twins and Jayden Sullivan look like decent prospects.
Over/Under: 6.5
My prediction: Under lol
15. Warriors
I actually like this Warriors roster, but I’ve got huge concerns about their ability to back up how they performed in 2020 with another year on the road. I’m not a Nathan Brown fan in the slightest and I don’t think he has the ability to unite potentially homesick/struggling players in the same way Todd Payten did. I could be very wrong about this one, but I just think that if they lose a couple of games early, that the wheels could come off completely. In positives, I think Tohu Harris is the most underrated forward in the competition and I’m excited to watch another year of development for Chanel Harris-Tavita. There’s enough to like about this roster that I think there’s a chance they push for the eight, but I just think the adversity and Brown factor will be too much to overcome.
Over/Under: 9.5
My prediction: Under
14. Broncos
I was feeling weirdly optimistic about the Broncos heading into 2021… until I saw Kevin Walters was making Tom Dearden do a train off with Brodie Croft for the halfback spot and remembered how painful this guy was as an Origin coach. I’m still onboard with a lot of the changes #Kevolution has made/is making but this Broncos side still has so far to go to bounce back from the embarrassment of 2020. I’ve somehow talked myself into TPJ finally getting the balance right this year and Milford and Isaako having bounce back seasons, but they’re still so skinny at dummy half (Turpin’s injury history is a massive concern) and in the outside backs, that I can’t put them any higher. They’ve also got a horror draw to start the season (five games against the 2020 top six in the first seven weeks) and no Haas for three weeks or Staggs until mid-year, so I think eight to ten wins would be a pass mark for their season.
Over/Under: 7.5
My prediction: Just under
13. Sea-Eagles
I was so high on Manly going into 2020 that I had them making the top four and winning the competition (one of my worst takes in a crowded field). Any positivity that I once had for this roster and Des as a miracle worker is now gone, primarily due to their inability to stay healthy and plug gaping holes in their roster. They’re once again going into the season without anything that resembles a decent dummy half and somehow still don’t have any rock- solid contingency plan for when Tommy Turbo is unavailable at fullback. Something feels right about seeing Kieran Foran back in maroon and white alongside DCE, but I think they’ll really feel the loss of AFB (and Joel Thompson to an extent) in the pack. I’m excited to see if Taniela Paseka can build on his strong finish to last season and I’ve got my fingers and toes crossed that Turbo can see more of the field in 2021, but nothing I saw out of Manly in 2020 filled me with optimism for this year. With all that said, they’ll still probably sweep the Raiders with two gritty victories and Jack Gosiewski starring, because that’s how Raiders v Manly games go these days (pain).
Over/Under: 11.5
My prediction: Under
12. Bulldogs
Could easily see them falling a little bit lower than this and into the 13-15 range but I think there’s reason for optimism amongst Dogs fans. They’ve finally got some quality players with attacking upside in Nick Cotric and Corey Allan and I’m confident that Luke Thompson will be significantly better in 2021. I still think they’re a hooker and forward away from properly competing for the 8 and I’m not in love with Kyle Flanagan as a prospect, but I’d be surprised if they aren’t a lot more competitive in most games this season. Trent Barrett copped a lot of shit for his time as a Head Coach in Manly, but I was impressed with his attack in Penrith and am excited to see what he can do with a young team here. I’ll be very keen to see what Jake Averillo can do at five-eighth this year, as a strong season could apply the blowtorch on Flanagan again with Burton on his way in 2022.
Over/Under: 9.5
My prediction: Just under
11. Tigers
I tried to talk myself into moving the Tigers up even further but they’re still just a couple of pieces away from being a top eight side for mine. I love the Daine Laurie and James Tamou signings from Penrith, I think James Roberts was worth the gamble and I think Juicy Luchy Leilua is in for another massive season. I don’t love the dummy half combination of Jacob Liddle and Jake Simpkin/Moses Mbye and I’m still not sold on the idea of Adam Doueihi as a five-eighth or Luke Garner as a starting edge. I’m very curious to see how Luke Brooks goes behind a stronger pack and I’m holding out to see what version of Joe Ofahengaue turns up in 2021. Even though it’s a deeper and more balanced squad than 2020, I just can’t pick them to break their top eight drought this season after losing Harry Grant. BONUS TAKE: Joey Leilua looks fit again and I’m all in baby, don’t let me down.
Over/Under: 7.5
My prediction: Over
10. Sharks
It’s an easy choice to pick the Sharks to fall out of the eight this season, but with no Shaun Johnson for half the year, it’s going to be incredibly difficult for them. I’ve got a big wrap on a lot of their middle forwards and outside backs, especially Toby Rudolph, Braden Hamlin-Uele, Siosifa Talaki, Sione Katoa and Ronaldo Mulitalo, but their roster is filled out with a lot of players past their prime who are waiting to be moved on. I’ve got no idea why the blowtorch is so hot on John Morris, I think he’s been set up to fail post Shane Flanagan and still done a reasonable job all things considered (based on the optics I’ll be shocked if he’s there at seasons end). I can see them beating up on some bad sides again in 2021, but I can’t help but feel like the gap has widened between them and the top sides. BONUS TAKE: I’m really hoping that Jesse Ramien can impose himself more on games this season, I think he can be one of the best centres in the comp if he wants to be.
Over/Under: 9.5
My prediction: Just over
9. Knights
I originally had them in the 7-8 range but it’s boring to pick the exact same top 8 as last year and the way the Knights finished 2020 left a sour taste in my mouth. I still like their starting pack, but their bench is a bit skinny, their backline is already missing four first choice starters and I’m always comfortable betting against a Mitchell Pearce side. I’m keen to see what Tex Hoy can do filling in for Kayln Ponga, though I’m also keen to see how Kalyn bounces back now that he’s got some genuine competition for his Origin jersey. Connor Watson at 13 is the most interesting part of this team for me and I think he can make a real fist of it pending his body can hold up. I’m not completely out of this Knights side, but I just think another team has to make way from the top eight and with their controversial pre-season and poor end to 2020, they’re the prime candidate.
Over/Under: 11.5
My prediction: Under
8. Cowboys
I don’t know how, but the Cowboys have got me again baby! I’m a massive Todd Payten fan and I’ve always thought their roster (despite being a bit flawed) has underachieved in recent seasons. I love the move of Scott Drinkwater to fullback, Holmes to the wing and Clifford to 7, though I’m not sure where that leaves Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, who looked all at sea defending at centre in the trial. I feel a bit yuck about Coen Hess starting on an edge, but Shane Wright is a decent replacement if Hess doesn’t work out (again). I love the way Payten has spoken about using Taumalolo (shorter stints, more variety in his carries) and I think they’ll be able to score points for fun at times throughout the season with the spine and speed they have. I do worry about their edges defensively again, but fingers crossed with new structures and a coach they buy into, they’re a much better unit in 2021. Francis Molo is one to keep an eye on, was slept on in 2020 and has been given a starting role this year, I’m expecting a big year for him.
Over/Under: 9.5
My prediction: Well over
7. Titans
I’m always wary of buying too much into a hyped team before they’ve actually achieved anything, but I really do think the Titans are top eight bound this season. As much as David Fifita was the marquee signing, I think Tino Fa’asuamaleaui is the recruit who will have the biggest impact on their season. He reminds me a lot of Raiders lock Joseph Tapine with his size and quick feet through the middle, though he looks a far more polished product than Tapine at the same age. A lot of this prediction is based on AJ Brimson staying injury free for the majority of the year, as I think he could emerge as one of the best fullbacks in the game if that happens. I do worry about their dummy half options (have never been a Mitch Rein guy) and I’m curious to see how Taylor and Fogarty back up their impressive 2020’s with a lot more pressure and expectation on them. The Titans with hype is always reason for cautious optimism (see Hayne era), but anything less than a top eight berth really would be a disappointing outcome this season. BONUS TAKE: Building the Titans is great viewing, check it out if you get the chance. It’s exactly the type of content rugby league needs more of.
Over/Under: 12.5
My prediction: Over
6. Eels
I’m not massive on Parra heading into 2021 but I do think they’re still the best of the rest behind my five premiership contenders. I’m very anxious to see how their edges look this season, Ferguson and Sivo both looked like shells of themselves in 2020 and I’ve never been a huge Tom Opacic or Waqa Blake guy. I’ve got little to no time for the signings of Keegan Hipgrave and Bryce Cartwright and I was both shocked and saddened to see Hipgrave make their side for round one. I do love the signing of Isaiah Papali’i, who I think could be one of the sneaky signings of the season and potentially nab Shaun Lane’s spot on the edge by the midway point. Dylan Brown looks like a generational prospect and I think on the back of a strong forward pack, he can establish himself as a genuinely elite half this season. This preview may have sounded a little harsh on Parra, but I do think the Eels will be a good football side again in 2021 and likely still be there in the second week of the finals. The big question is, will that be enough to keep Brad Arthur in the job?
Over/Under: 14.5
My prediction: Just under
I think you could make a case for any of these sides to finish 1 to 5 or win the competition and I would have no problem with it, but I’ll do my best to split them up.
5. Roosters
I think any notion that the Roosters days of competing for titles are over because of their straight sets exit in 2020 is incredibly naïve. The Roosters missed Victor Radley far more than a lot of people gave credit for throughout the back half of the season, as they struggled to replicate his ability to act as a link man in attack and his work rate tying up the middle in defence. With Radley back in the side, the job of both Keary and Lam becomes significantly easier and I think the team will be a lot more clinical on both sides of the ball without the fatigue of back-to-back premiership campaigns behind them. I’ve done a pretty big U-turn on Angus Crichton in the last twelve months and I think he looks ready to establish himself as one of, if not the best edge forwards in the game this season. The reason I’ve got them at fifth is because I worry a tiny bit about their depth and their ability to beat some of the other top sides without an established halfback. A player I’ve got my eye on is little known rookie Joseph Suaali, the guy moves as well as any prospect I’ve seen.
Over/Under: 16.5
My prediction: Just under
4. Panthers
While it would be near impossible to replicate the regular season that Penrith had in 2020, I think they’ll be right up there again as one of the best sides this season. It can be a bit of a popular take to write off a grand final loser in the season following, but with the majority of the key cogs of last season returning with a lot more experience under their belt, the sky remains the limit for this Panthers side. My main concern for Penrith is the departure of leaders James Tamou and Josh Mansour leaving them short of a few veteran heads, while the departure of Trent Barrett has been somewhat brushed over for mine. I'm also curious to see how this team bounces back after losing a couple of games in a row this season. It's easy to play with confidence when you're winning every week and I think it will be interesting to see how guys like Cleary and Luai respond once they have a few bumps in the road. With all that said, this Panthers side is still one of the most talented squads in the competition, they're enthusiastic, they're well coached and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go one further this year. BONUS THOUGHT: Very keen to see Charlie Staines with an extended run in first grade this season, his debut was one of the most YTB moments of 2020.
Over/Under: 17.5
My prediction: Just under
3. Storm
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Storm finish in the top two once again, but I can’t call Cameron Smith the greatest player of my lifetime and then predict his team to equal or better it’s record without him. I do however, expect his replacement Harry Grant to emerge as the best hooker in the competition by season’s end and Cameron Munster to cement his spot as one of the game’s best players as he takes on additional responsibility without Smith. With Bellamy likely leaving at the end of the season and Brandon Smith and Josh Addo-Carr moving on as well, it does somewhat feel like this may be the Storm’s best chance to win the title in the near future and I think with their elite spine and dominant forward pack, they’re well positioned to go close. I do think without Vunivalu their outside backs look a little bit skinny, but the Storm traditionally cover these losses like they’re nothing so I’m sure we’ll have forgotten his name by round three.
Over/Under: 16.5
My prediction: Over
2. Raiders
I’ve already spoken at length about my Raiders, but this feels like another team whose best chance to win the comp is in 2021. They’ve got an incredibly deep squad, particularly in the forwards and Jack Wighton and George Williams look primed for another big season together. They’ve got a couple of key outside backs who are already on the wrong side of 30 and there’s no chance this pack stays together for another season, so it feels a bit like make or break for this team. For the last time before the season starts, Bailey Simonsson and Hudson Young to have huge seasons, trust me on this one!!
Over/Under: 15.5
My prediction: Over
1. Rabbitohs
My current tip for the Minor Premiership and another team that feels primed for a shot at the title in 2021. Their spine in my opinion is the best in the competition, their squad is loaded with depth and there’s something a bit special about it being Wayne’s last year at the helm. The addition of Origin forward Jai Arrow significantly strengthens their middle (which I thought was their biggest flaw in 2020) and Latrell will be better with a season of fullback under his belt. I’ve got so much belief in the Rabbitohs attack that I think they’ll put 40-50 points on bottom eight teams regularly and I think like most of the other top five teams, only health can stop them from being there at the business end of the season. The only thing I’m really curious about is how their edge will look with either Jacob Host or Keaon Koloamatangi lining up there, it was a bit of a problem area for them in 2020 and I’m not completely sold on the replacements just yet (Host is okay but don’t think I’ve seen Keaon play there before). Otherwise, this team looks set to breakthrough their Preliminary Final curse in 2021 and be there on Grand Final day (Sorry Cooper). BONUS TAKE: It's never usually the favourite but Alex Johnston just seems like a such a sure thing to be top try scorer this season, only injury or extended time at fullback can stop him.
Over/Under: 16.5
My prediction: Over