With the start of the NRL season less than a week and a half away, we finally got our first look at a near full-strength Raiders side at Seiffert Oval on Saturday. While any result or score line can be taken with a grain of salt in the NRL preseason (especially when one of the sides is coached by Ricky Stuart), there were still plenty of things to take away from the first glimpse of the Green Machine in 2021. I considered throwing some of these takes in a long thread but thought why not try something new instead and do some long form writing. I also know it’s dumb to write lots of words following a trial but most of these are just pre-season #takes that I wanted to double down on prior to the season and if you aren’t overreacting to trials then hit the bricks. Enjoy.
Takeaways
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad’s Attacking Touches
It goes without saying that CNK has been one of the key cogs in the Raiders ascendence to competition heavyweight status, however his ability to ball-play on the end of shape has been somewhat of a work in progress over the last two years. Throughout 2020 we saw some small signs of improvement, with his hands for a Cotric try in Round 9 against the Dragons and his feet with a try assist grubber in Round 10 against the Roosters, however it still remained a key area of improvement for the Raiders attack in 2021.
From what I saw in Saturday's trial, there’s significant reason to be positive about Charnze’s scope for improvement as a ball-player this season, with a handful of nice touches and increased confidence on the end of the Raiders backline. While it was a tiny sample size, the intent Charnze had to go looking for the ball in the opposition half in both this game and the All-Stars game is incredibly promising. The standout moment was the lead up to Joe Tapine’s first half try (see below), which saw George Williams hit the ball at pace right off the ruck, link with Wighton, who dug into the defensive line before playing out the back to Charnze. In early 2020, I’ve got no doubt that Charnze hesitates and takes the tackle from the defender shooting out of the line in this scenario, but this time he quickly tipped on to Seb Kris to create a quick play the ball. Charnze followed up his pass with a dummy half carry, keeping the defence on their heels and earning himself another quick play the ball, creating the opportunity for the try. If he can replicate these kinds of attacking touches on a consistent basis throughout 2021, it will go a long way towards fixing the Raiders red zone issues against the top defensive sides (which has been the biggest chink in their armour the last two years in my opinion).
This try is everything I want to see out of the Raiders attack in 2021. Williams hitting the ball at speed just off the ruck, both halves digging into the line, Charnze ball-playing with confidence, forwards pushing up with Hodgson, who picks his moment perfectly. Sublime. Footage via Fox Sports and NRL.com.
BIG BOI Bailey
While I’m not as phased about the Nick Cotric departure as I maybe should be (I loved him but won’t miss his braindead moments & frustrating lack of improvement), his exit means the Raiders have lost by far their best yardage carrier of the back five. With Joey Leilua also gone, Croker and Scott not massive yardage guys and Jordan Rapana on the wrong side of 30, the Raiders suddenly don’t have the huge platform to start their sets that they once had in their 2019 Grand Final run. This leaves a huge responsibility for returning winger Bailey Simonsson (who is looking like he borrowed Cotric’s meal plan over the last 9 months) to carry the yardage load. With the emergence of Baby Raiders Semi Valemei, Matthew Timoko and Harley Smith-Shields in 2020, I feel like a lot of Raiders fans have forgotten just how good Bailey Simonsson actually is. He adds some much-needed speed to the Raiders backline, is safe under the high ball and provides an aerial threat in the red zone (see his 2020 try v Dragons). If our first look at him Saturday is anything to go by, he’s also stacked on some upper body mass throughout his rehab and is ready to be a big contributor to the Raiders yardage in 2021. He bent the line with almost all of his carries in 30ish minute stints against both the Bears and Roosters and threatened to break through on a handful of kick returns. I’ve got him marked down as the young player (along with naughty puppy dog Hudson Young) to make the big leap this season.
Hodgo Back at the Wheel
Josh Hodgson’s return to the Raiders line up has caused some (unnecessary to an extent) conjecture over the last nine months after the Green Machine’s attack kicked into gear following his injury in 2020. However, any concern that Canberra’s attack may stagnate with Hodgson back at the wheel was eased on Saturday, as he slotted straight back into the Raiders attack like he’d never left. He sent forwards Joe Tapine and Hudson Young over for tries, while slicing through for a line break of his own which almost put George Williams away. I think that any notion that he doesn’t fit this Raiders line up with two running halves is a significant reach at this point. I’d like to see him continue to give Wighton and Williams good early ball and pick his moments in the red zone a touch better, but I don’t think his poor post lockdown form is any indication that he can’t combine with George & Jack moving forward.
The main concern I do have for Hodgo’s return, remains his defence when targeted by big bodies. A number of teams were quite successful targeting him in 2020 prior to his injury (see his 9-miss tackle game against Parramatta) and the Roosters were again on the weekend as Lindsay Collins steamrolled him for their second try. I think it’s definitely something to keep an eye on as the season progresses and definitely something that could potentially be managed with a short spell throughout the 80 minutes to ease his defensive workload.
The Pack Depth Looks as Good as Advertised
I can’t imagine how many sleepless nights Ricky Stuart will have over the next week or so as he has to decide which forwards will miss out on his team for round one (Although the Corey’s have been a huge help with that). Between some variety of Ryan James, Sia Soliola, Emre Guler, Corey Horsburgh, Siliva Havilii, Tom Starling, Dunamis Lui, Ryan Sutton and Corey Harawira-Naera, the Raiders will likely have a NSW Cup pack that rivals some NRL teams starting packs (looking at you St George-Illawarra). Watching both matches on Saturday drove home just how good the depth is, as Guler, Horsburgh, James and Sutton in particular looked like men against boys for large periods of the first half of the Bears match. Horsburgh demonstrated that he has all the traits of an elite lock forward, with his late offload and ability to act as a link man creating a number of opportunities for the Raiders (but more on Corey later and for less nice reasons). I’m super intrigued to see how Stuart uses Baby Raider Thomas ‘Tom’ Starling this season in tandem with Hodgson, as he looked every bit as dangerous as he did in 2020 throughout both games Saturday. I’d love to see a recreation of the Baptiste/Hodgson partnership from 2016/17 where Hodgson either has a brief spell or spends some time at lock while Starling plays like a mad man for 20 or 30 minutes, but we’ll have to see how Ricky plays it. One little take I do have is that I don’t think the entirety of this pack will be in Canberra by the end of the season. I can’t help but feel like one of the middles and/or CHN will be gone by then, but I'm just an internet takesman.
Croker’s Potential Replacement
If you’d asked me prior to Saturday’s game about Jarrod Croker’s replacement to start the season, I would have yelled that it must be be dynamic Baby Raider Matthew Timoko. However, after the weekend it looks like the eggs may be all over my face, as Timoko had a quiet outing on the right edge (rather than Croker’s left edge) and Seb Kris and handsome Harley Smith-Shields (who seemingly hits like a Mack truck) pressed their case for the left. The word seems to be getting stronger that Croker will either be fit for round one or at worst only miss a week, so it seems increasingly likely that the returning Kris may temporarily win the spot. While it’s good news that Croker is ahead of schedule to return, I was a bit salty to see Timoko looks like he’s fallen a down the pecking order a bit. He was my pick of the Baby Raiders in 2020 and I was excited to see how he went as a dominant ball carrier outside the playmaking duo of Wighton and Whitehead. Hopefully he can put some pressure on Curtis Scott (who I’ve somehow talked myself into again) with some strong performances in Cup.
Horsburgh Concerns
The last thing I’ll touch on and one of the only things that left me a bit worried following the weekend was Corey Horsburgh’s discipline. As said previously, I am a HUGE Horsburgh guy and think he’s a massive shout for Origin this season, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a bit concerned about his ability to handle his emotions and temper on the field. I’ve got no doubt that opposition players will do their best to get under his skin following what happened at Bankwest last season and I’d hate to see him undo all the good work he does on both sides of the ball with dumb penalties or suspensions. It’s not worth hitting the panic button over yet but just another thing to monitor as the season progresses.
If you got to the end, I worry for your mental health but please let me know if you enjoyed and I’ll try and write some long form takes every so often this season. My overall feeling heading into this season is incredibly optimistic. I think if health permits and a couple of players bounce back from injury or down patches of form, then there is no reason why this side shouldn't be there or thereabouts come the business end. It's by far the deepest squad the Raiders have had in my time supporting the club and I think it's just about make or break time for this group. I can't wait to find out either way. MILK MILK MILK.
