Well, here we are. Six weeks into the Canberra Raiders season and a quarter of the way through their games in 2021. I’d been planning to write something after the first month of the season, with the Raiders humming along at a respectable 3-1, but thought there was no point in making any judgement until we’d faced Penrith and Parramatta. Unfortunately, I can now say that I’m glad I waited, because the garbage that the Green Machine has dished up in the past fortnight has completely shifted the mood of this piece. The 2021 Canberra Raiders, a side that I and many others predicted to be a top 2-3 side in the competition, have been blown off the park and completely exposed in their only two games against genuinely good opposition in the opening six weeks. Their pack, which was anointed one of, if not the best in the league throughout the pre-season, has been completely outmuscled and enthused in back-to-back weeks. Their reigning Dally M player of the year has just one try assist and 12 errors in six weeks. Their co-captains are both the wrong side of 30, coming off long injury layoffs and playing like it. Yet despite all this, I still believe the Raiders can and should finish in the top four and I still believe this team is capable of achieving great things this season. While the problems they’re facing are incredibly concerning and in urgent need of a solution, they’re not crippling. All but one of the first choice 17 are healthy, they’ve still got great depth, a fairly manageable draw and if the last two seasons are anything to go by, they generally peak at the right end of the season. With all that said, I’m still going to tear some shreds off people and decisions because I’m cranky (but first, the positives!!111!!!).
POSITIVES
Depth
The Raiders boast some of the best depth in the competition and it’s been evident throughout the opening quarter with standout performances from Sebastian Kris and Caleb Aekins in particular. The early optics on Aekins suggest that he’s another smart piece of recruitment from Stuart & Mullholland, with his strengths resembling a discount version of our hero Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, making him an easy plug and play in the Raiders system. He’s a strong ball carrier, workhorse in yardage and a safe pair of hands under the high ball. While he’s not a difference maker as a ball-player, the Raiders don’t necessarily need him to be and after the Eels game I feel confident that he can do a job for the next two months. In the pack, Emre Guler had a very solid performance in his return to first grade on Saturday night (13 for 115, 31 tackles), while Stuart is still yet to relieve Corey H1 and H2 from their duties in the doghouse despite some mammoth numbers over the last month. The continued form of these three should keep the blowtorch applied to everyone in the NRL pack, especially after performances like the last two.
Ryan James
I had no idea what to expect from Ryan James following his arrival at the club on the back of consecutive ACL injuries. Part of me wondered if he’d start the season in NSW Cup or be a shell of the player he was at the Titans, but he’s been anything but that so far. While his good form has unfortunately been hampered by two head knocks, James has been a valuable contributor to the Raiders middle, running for 100+ metres in two out of his four games and scoring a crucial try to break open the Round 1 victory over Wests. I’d like to see him start more in the future alongside Papalii and Tapine, but more on the team make up soon.
The Milk jersey looks outstanding
Nothing more needs to be said. When we wear the Heritage jersey, we look gorgeous.
BIG POSITIVES
Sebastian 'SEABASS' Kris
I had zero expectations for Sebastian “SEABASS” Kris heading into the season. He was solid without setting the world on fire as a rookie in 2019, had a year away from the game in 2020 and returned with braces in 2021. I didn’t expect him to be anywhere near the NRL side to start the season and I certainly didn’t expect him to be one of the biggest positives of the season through the opening quarter. Kris has been outstanding in almost every game he’s featured in this season, playing with great energy, versatility and defensive IQ. He’s thrived playing left centre, right centre and even filled in at right back row when required. He’s more than earned a spot on the bench and is arguably even worthy of a starting spot. I’d like to think that both Jarrod Croker and Curtis Scott can feel the mighty Seabass breathing down their neck right now and if they can’t, Stickman isn’t doing his job.
Ryan Sutton’s Rise
In a side filled with players who have been below their best to start the season, Ryan Sutton has been nothing short of incredible. He’s gone from a player that I thought would start the year in NSW Cup to the third most important middle at the club and he’s done it through nothing but toughness and hard work. In six appearances (three starts, three off the bench), he’s averaged 141 metres and 35 tackles while scoring two tries, making no errors and conceding just one penalty. He’s been one of the Raiders best in every game they’ve played this season and at times one of the few who can hold their head high. He’s often doesn’t get the same wraps that others in the Raiders pack do, but his rise from 2019 Grand Final omission to standout forward in 2021 has been one of my favourite storylines at the club in recent years. Almost a certainty to make his England debut at the end of the season.
CONCERNS
Bench make up and rotations
Now the negatives… One of the most frustrating things for the Raiders in their opening quarter of the season has been the mind-numbing bench make up and rotations of Ricky Stuart. After strangely omitting Thomas “Tom” Starling from the 17 to open the season, Ricky finally woke up to himself in Round 3, only to keep Siliva Havilii on the bench as well and play Starling as little as four minutes a game. Playing three hookers in the same 17 who are all incapable of playing outside the middle at an NRL standard, in a pack stacked with long-minute middles, makes genuinely no sense to me. Now I know Stuart has justified this decision by suggesting that he likes Havilii as backrow cover, but for me, both Seb Kris and Corey Harawira-Naera provide far better backrow cover with far more positional versatility. The Raiders should not be in a position where they are forced to move Elliott Whitehead from left second row to right centre midway through a match because of one head knock. Fortunately, it appears the Eels loss has driven some sense into Stuart and Seb Kris will be on the pine moving forward.
For me, I’d like to see a bench of Starling, Sutton, Horsburgh and Kris, with Ryan James starting alongside Papalii and Tapine. I think Horsburgh provides some vital second phase play that the Raiders have been desperately missing, as well as (*hopefully more controlled*) aggression and defensive line speed throughout the middle period of the match. I also think Hodgson’s days as an 80-minute hooker (player) should go on indefinite hiatus, with Starling playing the middle 30-35 of the match and Hodgson playing 50-60 with some time as a BPL (but more on Josh soon).
Defensive Line Speed
Feels like this has been a problem since the dawn of the Stuart era, with the Raiders often utilising a ‘bend-not-break’ defensive mindset across the middle of the field. With the new rules, it’s basically impossible to win the territory battle while giving up 50+ metres every set, meaning the Raiders are often stuck working the ball out of the corner of their own red zone. Given Stuart and Don Furner have been so invested in what the Panthers are up to lately, I’d love to see them take a leaf out of their book and play with some defensive intensity for once. Get off the line quickly, push the offside boundaries and don’t be afraid to risk a set restart early in the set to gain ascendency. Please! Just try it for once!
Jack Wighton
The reigning Dally M Medallist has been at quiet at best to start the season and I feel as though Josh Hodgson has been unfairly scapegoated for his performances at times. Wighton is too good a player and too good a striker of the ball to still be kicking it out on the full every SINGLE weekend. He’s too good a player to still be dropping the ball three times in a half. He’s too good a player to go completely missing in a big game. It doesn’t matter if it’s Josh Hodgson or Mickey God Damn Mouse at hooker, these criticisms are all solely on Wighton to improve. I know he’s an incredibly unique talent, whose impact on a game can often just be two or three match turning plays, but I don’t think it’s unfair to ask for more out of the Raiders most important player. I’d love to see him pop up as a ball runner on both sides of the field, even if it’s as a fullback style sweep at times, and I’d love to see him carry more of the long kicking load.
BIG CONCERNS
Jordan Rapana, Josh Hodgson & Jarrod Croker
There’s nothing more concerning to me than the form of veteran players and club legends Jordan Rapana, Jarrod Croker and Josh Hodgson. I said in my pre-season preview for Beyond the Fence that one of my nightmares for the Raiders in 2021 was that the concerning form of Rapana and Croker in the back end of 2020 would continue into 2021 and that Josh Hodgson’s return could stifle the Raiders attack. It’s not a nightmare just yet, but I’m worried it has all the makings of one.
I was hopeful that a move back to the wing would help Rapana recapture some of his early 2020 form, but since botching the putdown in the final seconds of the Warriors game, he’s put together some of his worst games in a Raiders jersey back-to-back-to-back. I’m confused as to why he’s playing on the left wing, when he’s clearly a natural right winger and Simonsson spent the entire 2020 pre-season on the left. More concerning though, is his ability to come up with an error in a crucial moment and his inability to refine his playstyle to suit his ageing body. Rapana only knows how to play one way, which is what made him so great at his best, but it’s unfortunately what’s making his decline so rapid. I’m hoping with every bone in my body that he can turn it around, because he will always be one of my favourite players, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t terrified of what I’m seeing right now.
I love Josh Hodgson and will always be grateful for what he’s done for this club, but I’ve long thought he’s been given too much freedom around the ruck in the red zone by Sticky. The issue I’ve always had is that if you just tightened Hodgson’s game up by 20%, he could be even better than he was at his peak. He’s brilliant at engaging the markers and creating space for his forwards, he’s got great deception close to the line and his service is by far the best at the club. However, it genuinely feels as though he doesn’t realise that we can score points that don’t come off his hand or his boot. It means he has games like the first half of the Warriors game where he can pick apart a defensive line at will, and other games like the Eels or Sharks game where he will drive you insane. Furthermore, his defensive issues, which I flagged in the pre-season, have been just as bad as I feared. His first contact is often awful, leading to him being completely bounced from the tackle or conceding significant post contact metres. Players and teams are now prepared for his attempt to strip the ball (0 strips in 2021) and are consistently targeting him with big forwards. He’s got to take a leaf out of Cameron Smith’s book and do a better job at protecting himself from first contact.
With Croker, I’m still not ready to slam the panic button just yet, but that contract which features a player option for 2024 is certainly something. I’ve always thought that he can be the type of player that ages gracefully given he doesn't rely too much on athleticism, but it’s the little errors that crept into his game last season that continue to concern me. Croker from 2-3 years ago never missed a kick chase like he did against Penrith and he never looked rattled on the end of a backline movement like he does at times now. I’m really hoping I can look back 6-12 weeks from now and laugh that I was ever concerned about these three falling off a cliff, but I’m not feeling overly optimistic at the moment.
George Williams’s long kicking game
This piece has already gone on too long so I’m just going to touch on this briefly. What is going on with George Williams’ long kicking game? It feels like he’s hitting the man on the chest with 20m dinks that Brodie Croft would be proud of to finish almost all of our yardage sets. I haven’t really seen it mentioned anywhere but it’s gifting the opposition field position and putting us on the back foot just as much as the poor line speed. Desperately needs fixing.
CONCLUDING THOUGHT
Some of these takes may have seemed over reactionary and maybe some of them are, but I’ve got too much belief in this side to watch them get smacked up by Parramatta (without Matterson & Brown) and Penrith (without half their spine) and just shrug my shoulders. This team is good enough to beat anyone and with a few tweaks there’s no reason why they can’t. See you in 6 weeks.